Here's a very simple example.
If you were offered 4 colored blocks, and you could choose any 2, how many different ways could you choose your pair of colored blocks?
The answer is 6. There are 6 different ways of choosing 2 out of 4 blocks.
Now, if you had 20 guys in a room at a gay dating event, how many possible combinations of couples could you have?
....
I'll save you the suspense. There are a total of 190 different couple combinations. So, theoretically speaking, when I hold a 7for7 event, there could up to 190 matches. Fewer if the number of participants is less than 20. Of course, we never ever even remotely approach that number of matches. So, how many matches do I actually record at every event? You can see the numbers below:
In practice, the total number of matches is very low, as seen in the table above. If we take the total number of matches divided by the total possible number of matches, we end up with a crude estimate of how likely it is for two people to hit it off together. Something like an average probability of 6%.
In reality, the number is even lower for most people, because the good-looking and attractive guys who attend my events go home with multiple matches. These guys skew the average upwards. The probability of a match for an average looking guy with an average personality is probably in the range of about 3%.
We all knew it was challenging finding someone you liked who liked you back, at least enough for a second date. Well, my data is telling you exactly how challenging it is. The odds are 17-1 against.
When I first presented this to the organizers of Indignation when I was pitching the idea of a talk, I was told this rather depressing figure wasn't something I should show, because it would discourage people from attending my events.
I didn't say it then, but I thought that the idea of not showing the data was insane.
The low probability of a match isn't the fault of speed dating; it's a reflection of the fact that it's really hard to find someone compatible. Whether you choose to attend a dating event or not doesn't change that fact. And attending a dating event is not an either-or proposition; just because you go to a dating event doesn't mean you can't also do online dating, ask friends for introductions, go to a gay bar or cruise at the gym. So, the low probability of a match is no reason to not go to a dating event, because it isn't a phenomenon peculiar to a dating event.
In fact, I would argue that the low probability of a match is precisely why people should attend dating events. Again, we'll have to turn to the numbers to get the story.
For any given pair of guys at a 7for7 event, the probability of a match, as stated above, is very low, standing at about 6%. But the probability of a participant who attends a 7for7 event going home with at least one match is actually quite good. Better than 50%!
The chance of hitting it off with one particular guy is only about 6%, but the chance of hitting it off with at least one guy when you meet a whole bunch of guys at an event is ten times better: 60%.
This again reflects the fact that dating is inherently a numbers game. And a dating event is the most efficient way to actually meet, in person, many new guys. The more guys you meet, the more guys you'll find yourself interested in, and the more likely you will go home with at least one match.
This again reflects the fact that dating is inherently a numbers game. And a dating event is the most efficient way to actually meet, in person, many new guys. The more guys you meet, the more guys you'll find yourself interested in, and the more likely you will go home with at least one match.
When you consider the low probability of making a match, it makes sense to go to a dating event where you get the chance to meet many gay, single and relationship-oriented individuals. It's like buying multiple lottery tickets; you're more likely to walk away with a prize than if you just bought one ticket (meaning you went on a one-on-one date with a prospect).
And remember, the low probability of a match that I have estimated above is in the context of a dating event, which as I have mentioned, involves gay, single and relationship-oriented individuals.
What's the probability that you'll meet someone gay, single and relationship-oriented in the normal context of your life? And that both of you happen to be compatible with each other?
In all likelihood, much, much lower.
And if you're closeted? Practically zero.
